The Iceberg Index: Measuring Workforce Exposure Across the AI Economy
Project Iceberg reveals that artificial intelligence could impact $1.2 trillion in U.S. wages, far beyond what current metrics show. The new Iceberg Index measures the wage value of tasks AI can perform for 151 million workers and 32,000 skills. While visible AI adoption in tech jobs is small, hidden automation risk is widespread, especially in states with few tech jobs. The study urges policymakers to use skills-based data, as traditional indicators miss most AI exposure.
What it examines
This paper introduces the Iceberg Index, a new way to measure how artificial intelligence (AI) overlaps with human job skills across the U.S. workforce. Using large-scale simulations, it helps policymakers see where AI could impact jobs before changes happen, guiding smarter investments in training and infrastructure.
What it concludes
The Iceberg Index reveals that AI's impact on jobs is much larger and more widespread than current measures show. It helps leaders prepare for changes by identifying hidden risks and opportunities. Applications include workforce planning, targeted training, and policy testing. Future work will model adoption dynamics and include physical automation.
Evidence objects
Project Iceberg reveals AIs impact on the U.S. workforce is vastly underestimated, introducing the 'Iceberg Index' to measure the wage value of tasks AI can technically perform across 151 million workers.
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Visible AI adoption in tech jobs accounts for just 2.2% ($211 billion) of wage value, but hidden automation potential reaches 11.7%a staggering $1.2 trillionaffecting every state, not just tech hubs.
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The study finds states with small tech sectors may face the biggest surprises, as white-collar automation risk is often overlooked; the Index measures technical exposure, not actual job losses, and excludes physical robotics.
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Introducing the 'Iceberg Index,' this paper offers a novel, skills-based metric for assessing AI exposure in the US workforce, using agent-based simulations. While original and potentially impactful for labor economics and policy, its relevance to hedge funds or quantitative finance is limited, lacking direct application to financial markets or investment strategies.
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Raw abstract and provenance
- … –AI labor market, representing 151 million workers as autonomous agents executing over … Financial institutions deploy AI for document processing and analytical support. …
Source row: 1946 · abstract type: snippet