Risk transmission between oil price shocks and major equity indices across bull and bear markets over various time horizons
This extensive study analyzes oil shock decompositions and quantile connectedness with international equity indices across varying market regimes and investment horizons.
What it examines
This study examines connections between oil shocks and international stock markets using quantile cross-spectral techniques and VAR models. It decomposes oil shocks into supply, demand, and risk components, analyzing their effects under different market conditions and time horizons to guide diversification and effective hedging strategies.
What it concludes
The results show that oil-stock linkages vary by market state and investment horizon, informing diversification and hedging approaches. This research can aid investors in portfolio design and risk monitoring while suggesting further studies on systemic risk transmission and refining strategies during extreme market events.
Evidence objects
The study reveals deep interconnections between oil prices and stock markets, employing innovative quantile methods to uncover demand-driven shocks that serve as strong short-term safe havens during bearish market conditions.
key_findings bullet 1 · key_findings · validation V0
Surprisingly, in the intermediate term, risk-driven shocks emerge as the dominant hedge, while over the long run, extreme market conditions nearly nullify diversification benefits between oil and stocks for investors.
key_findings bullet 2 · key_findings · validation V0
The analysis also distinguishes market connectedness, revealing that developed market equities such as those in the US, France, and Germany transmit more shocks, while developing markets act as net receivers.
key_findings bullet 3 · key_findings · validation V0
The paper innovatively applies advanced quantile-based techniques such as quantile coherency and connectedness models to examine risk transmission between oil shocks and major equity indexes. Its multi-market, time-horizon analysis provides a fresh perspective, making it essential reading for quantitative finance scholars focused on dynamic network analysis and market behavior universality.
key_findings bullet 4 · key_findings · validation V0
Raw abstract and provenance
- Interrelations among oil shocks and equity markets at extreme and median quantiles are examined by means of the cross-spectral quantile technique and quantile vector …
Source row: 1714 · abstract type: snippet